I’m finding it more and more difficult to read Origami-related content now. We’ve just about analysed those little boxes to death and we’re all coming up with the same negative conclusions again and again.
To me, Project Origami has been a success.
Despite the thousands of blogs and posts that complain about battery life and size. Its been a success.
Despite it getting a slating from Gartner. Its been a success.
Despite there being not a single sale yet. Its been a success.
For AMD, its been a success. For Nokia, Its been a success and for Microsoft its been a success.
Why?
Becuase I have never, in my internet life (18 years now) seen so many people analysing a market segment and then coming up with such a simlar conclusion. A real united opinion about a new market segment. I don’t even need to list the details here because most readers will have already analysed the requirements down to the last flip-out stand. There’s very few disagreements out there and thats a first. Even the OS X, Linux and XP argument seems to be quiet becuase everyone seems to understand that we’re talking about a device segment here in which all flavors of OS are going to fit.
Origami has been a success becuase its generated probably tens of thousands of blog comments, dozens of new websites and forums and an absolute gold-mine of ideas, analysis and wish-lists. And for the first time ever, the product manager just has to line up 50-100 RSS feeds and spend an hour to come up with a succesful product description.
The Origami team missed the mark with their first release. But I think they knew that was going to happen anyway. I think they’d taken manufacturers through to a point of no-return and decided to test the market with what they’d got. That something was pretty much the best that thermal physics would let them achieve for the given price bracket.
OK, one could argue that they shouldn’t have gone with the viral marketing campaign but I think that was a genuine mistake. The year-old promo video that was found just pushed the buzz beyond expectation. At least it shows that people are genuinly interested in it!
Compare that Origami buzz we saw to the Windows Vista buzz. Its totally different I dont know a single end-user thats excited about Vista. Vista doesnt have a hungry audience. Origami and the ultra mobile PC space seems to.
We’re in a race now. Every product manager who could possibly bring something into the ultra mobile PC market now knows what specifications are needed. They now know what their target customer is. Knows how important style is and knows where to price it for success. They also know that there’s a good number of customers waiting for the first product that matches the criteria. Don’t be suprised if someone takes the plunge and brings out a loss-leading device in order to grab the first big market share.
Who will it be? Will Microsoft force some heavy discounting or bundling? Will Nokia speed up development? Does AMD have partners its already working with? Are Apple or Sony working on something? Or how about one of the smaller companies? Pepperpad? Flybook? How about all the pocket-pc dev teams sitting round tables trying to find a quick way to repackage their product into the ultra mobile PC market. Or will someone take a different approach and hide the cost in a subscription package? There’s plenty of TV channels and video content out there waiting to be received via a digital TV receiver or online stream
I don’t really care how it manifests itself. I’m just excited at the prospect of many new devices appearing in the next 12 months and basking in a sea of luxury decisions. I just feel sorry for all those ultra mobile PC product managers out there that won’t get any sleep for the next year.
Keywords: umpc, origami
V1.0. 22nd March 2006.
“They now know what their target customer is.”
I would be willing to accept the entirety of your post if I could get myself to come to grips with this point. Have they really identified a target customer? Sure, I guess they are looking for the early adopters with lots of disposable cash. But how will they actually use this product? The marketing seems to sell the fact that you can use it anywhere. But what will I do with it? What are the capabilities that I will want to have access to that my laptop and my cell phone won’t let me have? (I’m not saying that there is definitely no use for Oragami, but I don’t think the makers have any idea of how to answer this question.)
The question of meeting the desired specifications for battery life and form factor and such is moot until the usage question is addressed. As is, I get the impression that the specs are arbitrary. It seems like people are just speculating that 2 hours isn’t long enough but 8 hours would be plenty. Without a context of how someone will use the thing though it is impossible to say. 2 hours might be plenty or 8 hours might be dreadfully inadequate.
Who’s the target audience? Well, me for one.
A three-hour battery life will easily last the duration of my commutes on public transit to and from work and, with some care, most of my short-haul travel.
It’ll handle my middle-haul too with access to some kind of external power supply; rail travel, my preferred method, is providing power jacks and Wi-Fi for business travellers (and often for coach, too) and UMPCs will likely have some sort of car adaptor for the four-wheel types and extended batteries for the aerial guys.
The package is small enough to be easily usable in confined spaces (like, say, the seats of common carriers listed above) and taken as part of carry-on luggage without taking up much of the allowance; but it’s big enough to be easily used and easily read.
It’s also compatible with my home operating system and other software without emulation; indeed, I’m looking forward to having a full Office suite available whenever and wherever I like.
I don’t think I’m the only one with a list of wants like that.
— Steve