It looks like its time for a new watchlist. The Summer 2006 watchlist is nearly complete and there are now some new devices to add to the list for 2007.
Looking back on the previous watchlist, a lot has happened.
Samsung Q1 with VIA processor. (Q1b) – Launched
Founder Mininote. (Tablet Kiosk i7210) – Launched
Pepperpad 3 – Launched
Flybook V33i. – Launched
ASUS R2H – Launched
Averatec AHI. – Delayed
Nokia Internet Tablet. – No News
DualCor cPc – Delayed
This is how my new ultra mobile PC Watchlist is looking.
- Mobits UMPC. (x15, X17, VX3)
- Yahoo/ Intel UMPC. (Some reports exist.)
- New OQO. (Report here.)
- iStation S43. (I’m investigation this one. Its Windows CE.)
- DualCor version 2. (news here.)
- Coxion WebBook 3G. (In the coming months. I’ll get a prototype of this.)
- Fujitsu P1610d. (news here.)
- Seamless S-XGen. (news here.)
- Sensol HiPad II.
- Uren V1
In addition to the above I’ll be watching HTC very closely. I have a gut feeling about them.
Any more for the list?
Regards
Steve / Chippy.
Since I commented on the last watch list, I thought I would update my thoughts as well…
1. like you, I’m surprised that we’re hearing nothing from Nokia (re: IT770). Rumors abound about a partnership with Google, but no info
2. Sony Mylo, another almost UMPC. Launched but targeted at Skype users on college campuses – an audience that’s way too small to support anything
3. OLPC/2B1/CM1 – whatever it’s called… Looks like they’ve finally got their first customer, Libya. The technology continues to amaze.
4. Are UMPCs the last of the slate form factor? It seems that the mainstream PC manufacturers are only making convertables with always connected keyboards. Could be that two or three years from now all notebook computers will have the single hinge and convert to tablet PCs. The only cost would be the touch screen.
My Prediction…(I can’t believe I’m doing this) UMPCs, slate-type tablet PCs, and almost UMPCs will split into three distinct market segments:
1. Vertical markets where a keyboard would be worse than useless (medical charts, appraisal fieldwork, etc.). I was at the Tablet Kiosk event in Anaheim the other day and the public event was just a couple of TK tables set out at the end of an all-day program for appraisers. I spoke to their director of marketing who told me that they were focused on vertical markets, not consumer retail.
2. Embedded computers – VW has a modified Passat with a UMPC. A number of car manufacturers are putting in bluetooth, iPod jacks, GPS devices, etc. It’s only a matter of time until a more general purpose computer fills more of these needs.
3. Executives, road warriors, and others wanting the lightest travel gear available. Here’s where Samsung seems to be playing with the Q1’s AVS media player. The Fujitsu P1610d is another entry into this market.
Just my thoughts, any comments in return?
“2. Sony Mylo, another almost UMPC. Launched but targeted at Skype users on college campuses – an audience that’s way too small to support anything” – msfromtheoc
before I say “wrong” might I ask about what may happen if the sony mylo were advertised on say facebook? As a college student, i’d like to say that most of my kind are willing to try just about anything if the risks, and costs associated are within acceptable limits. Now surely this may first make you think of bad bets, and even worse morning hangovers, but if priced and marketed correctly, the Mylo could very well mushroom into a very profitable product.
That is assuming colleges don’t ban Skype http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B574F4F2C%2DE098%2D42CC%2DB324%2D90B08E096289%7D&
Okay, let’s go with your two assumptions (1. colleges don’t ban Skype, 2. Sony drops RushMylo.com and advertises on Facebook).
I can’t get my two college students to part with their current cell phones, iPods, or AIM. The Mylo costs more than a 30GB iPod (that’s 29 GB more than the Mylo) plus their new cell phone combined. And, AIM does not work out of the box on the Mylo – although I’m sure there’s a hack or two that will enable AIM. Then there’s the issue of WiFi access off campus – other than coffee shops (and T-mobile’s wifi plan is $360 per year after the one year trial that comes with the Mylo).
Don’t get me wrong, the Mylo’s a need Rev1 WiFi phone product. But, we’re already seeing VoIP-Wifi capabilities being put into some Nokia phones. The problem here is the carriers won’t have it.
The Mylo and other VoIP-WiFi phones will work in areas that have municipal WiFi. They’ll be offered as a real alternative to Verizon and Cingular for a lot of your around town calling. I just don’t see the Mylo as a high volume / high profit product today, and I really don’t see it as a high profit/low volume niche product at colleges.
So, here’s a test… Go around to your friends on campus and ask them how many have heard of the Sony Mylo. I don’t think that many have heard. I think Sony’s not going to spend the money to promote it.
MSfromtheOC
Ok MSfromtheOC, let’s looks at the new “problems” so to speak with Mylo.
-have to part with “current devices”
-Carriers wont like WIFI on phones built in (correct me if i’m wrong here)
-AIM does not play nice with Mylo.
Ok, so i’d be hard pressed to part with my Pebl cell phone, my iPod, and well AIM I could use on my UMPC but that is beside the point… (possible solution at end)
WIFI hard to get on phones and AIM not playing nice. Those are issues which the distributing companies need to address if they want to have selling points for the device.
Now how do we get kids to part with their devices and migrate to Mylo, well much like the UMPC market there needs to be an education of the customer base (college student or otherwise) If the device is explained to potential customers how it could aid them, they are more likely to purchase or test out the device. I had also mentioned price being an issue, how many of my friends have heard of it, probably fewer than a handful, but between the $360 wifi access and whatever the cost of Mylo will be, I wouldn’t expect many college kids to be up on the technology of devices which most can only oogle at on store shelves.
Ok, so the initial comment which had irked me, “(college students) an audience that’s way too small to support anything” I’m just guessing but if you educate the intended audience about a device they may support it, but potential flaws in a product or its high selling prices or lack or marketing are not proof to me that college students would not “support anything”
Matt:
Flame off okay…
You missed one of the modifiers on my comment. It wasn’t “college students” it was “Skype users on college campuses.” That’s the difference between about 25 million and probably about 1 or 2 million.
College students are a great market, IF you have a product that appeals to all of them. I just don’t believe that the Mylo will a tryout by more than a few, those existing Skype users on college campuses.
So, by my reconing, if Mylo hits 10% of what I believe is its addressable market, that’s between 100,000 and 200,000 units sold. At that level it’s not a winner for Sony.
No flame was intended. Sorry if it had appeared that way :-(
Ok given that missed modifier, i’d say you are correct. Perhaps this could be fixed by some marketing by skype to college students?
Also a bit of googling led to this link on Sony’s site http://www.learningcenter.sony.us/assets/itpd/mylo/prod/index.html
The guy in the intro appears to be a bad example of a college student “I want to introduce you to something really really cool. Check it out.”
What would be your take on perhaps growing that marketable area after initial release?
Matt:
I agree with you that the Sony online marketing (both at the “learning center” and RushMylo.com) is pretty bad.
As I said before, the Mylo is a Revision 1 product for portable Skype phones. Netgear, Linksys and a few others are coming out with this type of product. Mylo’s marketing is, in part, confused becuse it’s a hybrid device (a little of this a little of that) in a market where missionary marketing is required.
You’ve got the right idea when you talk about Skype having to do the marketing. If the VoiP providers (Skype, Vonage, etc.) put street teams on college campuses and locations with MuniWiFi, you could build a real ground swell for these devices (that’s the missionary or educational marketing I’m talkng about). You have to convince folks that they need this because it will make a real difference in their lives (save money, do something new, etc.).
The message would be (1) higher quality calls, (2) lower costs, (3) can replace both your cell and landline if you live on campus, or in the MuniWifi’ed city.
I’m just not sure that Sony has this type of marketing in mind, nor do I see them partnering with a VoIP company. Their deal with T-Mobile is interesting, but it highlights the issue with WiFi VoIP phones… right now there are few places where WiFi VoIP phones can be used (college campuses, coffee shops, and airports are not enough).
How does this relate back to UMPCs… the same type of marketing (missionary or educational) is required if the UMPC market is to take off. It’s hard work and very expensive, and I don’t see Samsung or Tablet Kiosk doing it here in the US – at least not yet.
Funny you ask that, because UMPC marketing and the lack thereof has been a bit of a hot topic as of late. It seems as though there are many differnt potential user niches: home user, student, business professional, computer/tech professional for example who may have particular needs or uses which the UMPC could help fulfill.
Given those potential uses, it’s become apparent to me that those user groups should be marketed towards, however that step doesn’t seem to have been taken yet. Given the device has just come out in the past 7 months or so, there is also a bit of refining still being done at the hardware level, as well as getting devices to have other buying points like battery life and reasonable price points.
I went on quite a rant about this about a week ago http://www.propstm.net/2006/10/19/a-umpc-for-the-fairer-sex-and-my-take-on-umpc-marketing/