My new estimate for 2007 ultra mobile PC sales: 700,000 units.
Yesterday in the Computex website I read that ASUS were expecting to ship 10,000 R2H units per month in 2007. The R2H is currently one of, if not the, most popular ultra mobile PC on the planet so that gives us a big hint about sector-wide sales in 2007.
Now consider this statistic from DigiTimes:
VIA’s shipments of the CPUs and chipsets to OQO this year will allow the US vendor to roll out 40,000 UMPCs
That doesn’t quite mean that 40,000 OQO’s will be sold this year but its close. We’re starting to get a picture of the market. I previously estimated a max 500,000 ultra mobile PC units to ship in 2007.
Here’s my prediction for 2006, based on the stats I’ve seen (there isn’t many) and cross calculating from notebook sales figures and smartphone sales figures, I’d say we’re looking at global sales of around 500,000 ultra mobile PC units in 2006 using the
correctcurrent sales channels ad maybe 1 million if they get into cellular carriers hands.
I don’t think that’s far off the mark. Here’s another rough/guesstimate calculation based on all that I’ve read, studied and heard. (ultra mobile PC = all devices on the Carrypad product portal.)
- ASUS R2H. 120,000
- Samsung Q1 all models 120,000
- Medion ultra mobile PC (including Arima OEM sales under other brands) 120,000 [guess. Could be a big seller.]
- OQO 02 30,000
- Sony UX 80,000
- Nokia N800 50,000
- Others (through VARS, vertical markets) 150,000
Total in 2007 – approx 700,000 units.
Sounds quite a lot doesn’t it? Its not. Its about 0.35 of one percent of the global notebook PC market if I got my maths correct. (assumption: 200 million notebooksPCs are sold every year.)
This doesn’t include hi-end smartphones such as the Athena, Omni, E90 rumors.
Instat said 8M by 2011 so that would indicate that the market will just about double every year.
As I see stats during 2007 I’ll try and update the figures. It would be fun to split that 700,000 units across Intel and VIA. Gut feeling is that Intel will take the majority in the early part of the year but VIA will take the majority in the second half. Depends on weather the VIA-based Asus ultra mobile PC rumor is true and whether Intel get their finger out and start shipping the new ULV processors. [report on Intel low power CPU’s here.]
Any ultra mobile PC product/marketing/sales managers watching? Don’t use these figures. They are my guestimates. On the other hand, if you get a big bonus because of my stats, drop me a line and i’ll give you my PayPal details!
Steve.
This forecast seems a lot to me. What about a new “hype” as an explanation, like tablet PCs in 2002 ?
First sales to tech fanatics and high end customers don’t make a market, later on sales decline a little and stagnates like tablet PC did until convertible notebooks appeared.
The first year includes initial stock. If stocks do not sell through the channel at year end (2006), it takes 3 to 6 month after high season to see it – check numbers in may / june timeframe to give a more reliable forecast.
Samsung Q1 firesales coupons are not a good sign; it reflects excess inventory – not sales.
Hi.
Considering that Intel have now launched McCaslin and that 4 new products will appear on 18th April, that Samsung have increased thier targets for 2007 and that there’s still Computex expo to go, I think the market is starting to pick up steam now. 2008 will see the coming-of-age of UMPCs. It certainly won’t take the same path or timescale as TabletPCs.
Where did you see Q1 sell-offs?
Steve.
Good topic for making an effective dissertation. . . . . .