Trying to analyse mobile device requirements is one of my favourite pastimes and it’s the reason I started blogging so when Michael Gartenberg asks ‘how many devices are you willing to carry and what are they?’ I feel compelled to answer in detail.
In his Slashgear column Michael talks about research his company has done into how many devices people will carry that indicates there’s a ‘bell’-curve’ of numbers ranging from one to three with people moving to a situation where they own more devices and choos to carry devices based on needs. I guess it’s the same as cars, TVs, PCs and stereos. As prices drop, people can justify buying more than one of each and having it tailored to a specific need.
“Mobile devices are following two contradictory trajectories, with one class of devices fragmenting in terms of core functions creating new markets for standalone devices, while other converged devices are taking on new features and functions, rivalling standalone devices for features. inch
I agree. There are converged devices (high end smartphones) and dedicated devices (digital cameras, web browsers, ebooks, navigation devices, umpcs etc.) Michael doesn’t say what type of device he think will succeed but my feeling is that ‘converged’ is never good for a large technology companies profits and you’ll see the big marketing money pushing the dedicated solutions into the most popular markets of the moment. The problem here is that some niches are too tiny to support their own ecosystem and will never see quality devices. UMPCs is a classic example of a product category that struggles to provide good solutions for the relatively small number of people out there that want them. What’s needed is a multi-chassis approach that will lower the cost for companies wanting to make niche devices. A single software and hardware core that can be adapted to everything from a mid-range smartphone up to a high-end portable computer thus lowering the cost and giving the consumer better niche devices at lower cost. Companies like Intel and Texas Instruments are clearly working towards that goal.
Converged devices were always going to be a difficult proposition for other reasons too. There are physical problems with screen sizes and input methods that mean that, for example, ebook readers won’t ever work successfully in a smartphone form factor. There are also development and manufacturing timescales that mean you’re often behind the technology curve when the device is ready. Only devices that can sell in huge huge numbers and have huge huge budgets will succeed in the converging game.
The diagram to the right is an updated diagram showing device capabilities based on physical sizes. Some functions just don’t converge!
Here’s what I think will happen.
We have two categories of desire:
Always: Smartphone / MIIDPhone pocket convergence.
Sometimes: Digital camera, navigation, ebook, minipc, gaming device, pmp, notebook, netbook
The ‘always’ device can be a maximum of about 4 inch screen size and because it’s a device for everyone, economies of scale mean that you can work on those converged aspects without falling behind the technology curve. You can throw a lot of money at it. This is the only device that will ever successfully be a converged device. The other ‘sometimes’ devices won’t sell in high enough quantities to get the development budget needed to squeeze them all into one device so they will remain separate, relatively high-margin products.
And now to answer Michael’s question.
I want a small smartphone and a 4.8 inch screen converged MID to cover all the ‘sometimes’ areas. (High end internet-connected photography. Navigation. PMP. Ebook reading. Web browsing. Gaming) Clearly I’ll have a laptop too. Will I get it? Based on what I’ve said, probably not because there aren’t as many mobile nutters out there like me to justify such a device so I’ll probably have either 1) pay a lot of money for a specialist device if it ever appears or 2) focus on a very high end (and possibly very large) ‘always’ device and choose from a selection of dedicated gadgets to supplement that. Either way it looks like I’ll be using the three-device-strategy.
New article: Gartenberg’s Rule of Three. http://cli.gs/GHTb5
Must-read response to recent SlashGear column: RT @chippy: New article: Gartenberg’s Rule of Three. http://cli.gs/GHTb5
have you tried using the N810 as a ebook reader using fbreader?
i would say that ebook on a smartphone depends just as much on the content, and how its supposed to be presented, as pure text can be re-flowed if the file format is done right (marking of paragraphs rather then line breaks and so on).
oh, and see if you can make that graph a bit larger in its clicked on form. i find it barely readable…
and i think nokia is using much the same parts for their tablets as they use for their phones, to save cost. both the 770, N800 and N810 have shared batteries with their contemporary smartphones for instance.
I find the N810 less than ideal for e-reading. Possible, but not my cuppa.
I’ve fixed the image BTW.
A good response to my latest column on slash gear. http://bit.ly/eofB8
RT @Gartenberg: A good response to my latest column on slash gear. http://bit.ly/eofB8
a smaller digicam with vga video capabilities, a vga pda/smartphone combo linkable to a netbook via usb remote software (to use netbook keyboard and mouse if needed) and a boosted netbook 9 or 10 inch depending on the circumstances (dualboot win linux, large hd) on the go. the pda/smartphone might also serve as wifi/bluetooth modem for the netbook if needed. more powerful workstation at home. means 3 devices on the go, 4+ in total.
I see a similiar situation with printers.
Nowadays the home printer comes converged, but for a while they were separate devices. You still can get jus pure printers, but the market for scanners has almost disappeared (just specialist ones left.)
I find your sometimes list intriguing:
Digital camera, navigation, ebook, minipc, gaming device, pmp, notebook, netbook
This partly a list uses and partly of pieces of equipment.
The camera, navigation and PMP can already all be got on a smartphone. You can also easily have a decent Gaming Device in that size like the DS Lite. What do you want a netbook for or a minipc or notebook?
Web browsing, productivity suites and various portable software, like that used by the Gas Service Engineer and a saleman.
This can all be done on a 4.1″ smartphone. I actually feel that smartphone are going to become set between 3.5″ and 5″. This will become the cheaper option and the single use item will become more expensive (like a really good camera).
With pico projection coming in then I can even see a foldup screen, which is part of the UMPC which you project onto when you want larger size – remember I said it first right here :-) i.e. Opens up to roughly A4.
I currently have a dumbphone and a 9″ laptop on the go. For browsing I’m looking to add a pocketable x86 UMPC/MID (with GPS preferably) to those. That would be three devices already, plus I still want a separate 5″ ebook reader – and I’d probably still be missing a decent camera!
Perhaps I could find a phone with a quality camera and GPS, but I’m pretty sure I wouldn’t want to use it for browsing. That means I’d have a smartphone, ebook reader and a UMPC in addition to my current laptop unless I started leaving it at home.
A MIDphone wouldn’t solve my equation, but a MID/UMPC with a good camera just might. It might be a three-and-a-half-device solution, if I only took the netbook along when it is most needed.
I’m going to the two devices strategy: one smartphone with a decent “always on hand” camera, 3G, video recording and GPS enabled; and a Viliv S5 for all the rest (ebook reading, social networking, microblogging, web browsing, music & movies playing and even PPT presentations). It’s a bit more expensive than I’d like, but works for me. AND, it’s better than keep a MP3 Player and an e-Ink ebook reader as dedicated devices.
Kind regards!
Clayton