I’m not a big believer in convergence. It would be nice but on the whole, it’s a stupid dream. Here are five reasons why it won’t happen. You won’t be buying totally converged smartphones.
Marketing – Does anyone think that marketing teams will let this happen? What are the chances of the marketing team saying this to the board: “We have an idea. Lets stop separate MP3 and digicam sales and just focus on selling the converged device. It’s cheaper for the consumer.”
Buying cycle – The chances are that you’ve just bought one of the devices that your converged device includes. 1) Buying something you’ve already got doesn’t feel good. 2) The chances are that the dedicated device is better.
Pricing – The price of the separate items will drop to the point where you can afford to buy a PMP, MP3, EReader. In many cases the price drops to the point where they can be given as gifts.
Physics – There are physical reasons why everything won’t converge onto a smartphone. It doesn’t take much thought to see that.
Advancing Tech – Developing a converged device requires expertise, industry partners and speed. If you don’t get that converged device to market before the next wave of technology comes along then you’re already behind the curve on launch day. Developers of dedicated devices will always be ahead of the curve because they have a more efficient focus.
A slim opportunity
There is an opportunity for a large, dynamic, dedicated smartphone manufacturer to create a single device that 1) does not cut across products that exist in their portfolio 2) is more usable than dedicated devices at the leading edge of technology 3) to reach a big enough scale that the prices can be brought down to ‘no-brainer’ levels.
There aren’t many companies out there that could do this but Nokia is one example. Apple, Samsung, Sony and similar multi-product companies would have problems with this strategy.
I think marketing may go more like “Lets combine the two, we can save a bundle on hardware, and upsell the combo the the customers!”.
This in combo with pricing, as no company wants to fight razor thin margins, the very ones one find on single use products that one can give aways as gifts in cereal boxes. That’s why big computer brands first tried to dismiss netbooks and are now pushing them more and more towards laptops, as that’s the only way to get the margins that keep the shareholders happy. And the same happens to converged devices, as they can upsell on features rather then try and battle it out over razor margins on single use hardware. Especially when the different features share hardware, and is really only present in software (like say when one have a DSP that can handle any codec from voice to music, as long as the right code is loaded into it).
Margins are also why more and more companies are going “service”, with the hardware only being the gateway. Tie the user to “your” service package, and they will be shopping your hardware for eternity. Or at least until the competition comes up with a package that will make the customer take the time consuming and “painful” job of transplanting their digital existence to said competitor.
The first one, marketing alone is enough reason why total convergence is nothing but a sweet sweet dream, it MIGHT happen it’s possible, but the like you said, chances are very slim especially with the companies like apple and such.
And let’s say that you’re in a concert and just like a normal fan you want to capture this one in a lifetime experience and take a shot or two for remembrance and bragging rights to your friends. Are you gonna use your phones crappy 2 Megapixel camera? that produces noise equal to the sands in the beach. Of course not, your gonna use your brand-spanking new Nikon D90!
That’s why even if total convergence is plausible, consumers would think twice if they really want to have a device with a little-of-everything capabilities only.
Nice post by the way!
Best regards,
Peter C. Trape