Lock-in?
I’ve outlined four features above and used the expression ‘lock-in.’ These features are to many, features that they won’t want to trade away from once they’ve used them. Not only do these features define the social netbook, they also lock the user in and prevent them going back to a Wintel netbook.
Ask any app-store user if they would trade 100% more CPU power and Open Office for their app store and most will say no. Ask any smartphone user if they would give-up their location-based search features for Firefox and again, most will say no. Ask any smartphone user if they would accept a voice-only standby mode for 2x battery life and again, many say no. Even if customers aren’t aware of these features, if you take them away, they notice. And remember, you don’t need all of these features in a product to lock a customer in. Only one or two of them are necessary.
The fact is that these unique features will make customers stick and Intel need to respond to each and every one of these features.
Today’s Reality
Today’s reality is that netbooks are selling millions and ARM-based ‘smart’ devices are still a risky, fledgling market. The netbook design-to-market process is efficient and low-risk and prices for ‘desktop’ netbooks are likely to remain lower that ARM-based competitors for a long time. The reality is also that most netbook users choose them for low-end, table-based productivity and not just to be part of Foursquare. They simply aren’t mobile or social. But is that because they don’t want to be, or can’t?
Android on an ARM-based mini-laptop needs a lot of development time before it can compete either in mobile or tabletop scenarios. There is no ‘Google’ Android for non-voice products. There’s no Google app-store for non-voice products. Email and contact syncing even needs to be done through third party applications. High-quality productivity apps are few and far between. These are gaping holes and big issues for the ARM community.
Today’s reality is that Intel-based netbooks are selling like hotcakes and there isn’t a single ARM-based product that competes.
Airlife 100 and Google
Watch out for the Compaq Airlife 100. Its the first product I’ve seen that attempts to bring all the advantages of ARM and Android together in a single netbook-style product and it’s an indicator that large brands are moving forward quickly with products and already understand the key selling points of an ARM-based device. If Google were to turn round tomorrow and start authorizing Android marketplace and Google applications for these platforms then you’ve got a perfect storm. The Android operating system becomes, like the iPhone OS, an operating system that spans many markets and it becomes extremely attractive to developers. But only if Google flick that switch. OEMs i’ve spoken to are hopeful that it will happen but Google are holding back for now.
Intel Know.
Intel aren’t stupid right? Everything I’ve written about above is something that they’ve known about for many years. Moblin and MeeGo are the indicators that they already knew what was needed on the software platform and Moorestown and ‘power-gating’ are indicators that they known what is needed in terms of hardware. Nokia are also on their side. They clearly share research and data about usage models and lets face it, there are some incredibly intelligent futurists in both companies. Damn, I wish I could get some of them to write guest posts here!
Intel have until their next ‘tick’ in 2011 to rise up and respond to these challenges because that’s about how long it will take for OEMs to refine their ARM-based consumer products. I don’t expect all netbooks sales to move to this ‘dynamic OS’ , ‘always on’ model because many people are only using netbook for productivity but if you think about what Intel netbooks are aiming to be, the always-on usage model seems to make so much more sense than a scenario where you are forced to disconnect from the ‘net.’
Summary.
There’s a space for ARM-based netbooks in the market that will have unique and lock-in features. Social netbooks (and related tablets and MIDs) will be ARM’s territory until Intel can catch-up and offer equivalent features. If Google enables the marketplace for these devices, the space becomes even more interesting for ARM as the flood-gates open to a new wave of application development for social, entertainment and productivity scenarios. In this case, the Wintel proposition loses some of its shine and will lose significant percentage points. It’s possible that, combining unique, lock-in features with a Google Marketplace we could see a large percentage of the Intel-base netbook market fall to the ARM community. Intel need to ready M(eeGo)intel and a new netbook processing platform as soon as possible in order to be able to fight in this important market.
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RT @umpcportal: Social Netbooks and ARM's Lock-In Netbook Opportunity. http://bit.ly/bk2bfQ < I'm back at my desk with thinking cap!
Interessant ! RT @umpcportal: New article: Social Netbooks and ARM's Lock-In Netbook Opportunity. http://bit.ly/bk2bfQ
I think you’ve got it right Chippy but I wonder if a portion of what you envision does not already exist? The Iphone / Itouch / Ipad would seem to occupy that universe today. I am not sure we have to dream about the coming social netbook world but instead can take a peek over the fence at Apple and see how their users are enjoying life with always on, GPS aware, massive online store, living.
I wonder if the real question should not be, Can Intel catch up to Arm and Android but instead can Arm / Android catch up to Apple? Personally I hope Arm / Android can match Apple because I really dont want Steve Jobs running my online mobile life. We need more choices!
You are right Chippy, this is a very astute observation. Given the tremendous advantages that mobile OS’s have regarding battery life, instant on and the general economization of computing resources, one tends to wonder how long will it take before the advantages of desktop OS’s drop below the threshold for most users. We saw what Apple did with its productivity suite. Maybe MS will follow. We see how much the cloud has lifted much of the file management requirements and restrictions. Are we heading towards the death of “desktop” OS’s, at least as the main paradigm of everyday computing?
At the recent Barcelona event Microsoft declared that their new phone software was not intended to give you a full desktop computer experience, (or something to that effect). What you really saw was a silent prayer being offered because Microsoft needs to continue to sell $199 and $299 operating systems for desktop computers in order to feed their massive needs. If they offered a $35 phone operating system that could handle desktop demands, they would be out of business within a few years.
Apple is in the same boat. No desktop operating system on their Ipad because if they did, there would be no reason to buy their $2,000 laptops and desktop machines.
I imagine looking out the window of Microsoft or Apples headquarters today must be a lot like the workers who made buggy wipes looked out their loading dock doors and saw these noisy, smelly, metal vehicles gaining in popularity. Some probably thought cars would never catch on while others planned to buy one for themselves and look for a new job while they were at it.
I think Google is the only company with no stake in crippling their Android operating system. Do they have the vision to let it expand to fill all the niches? What they do with their App Store on non-phone MIDs will give us a good indication.
Social Netbooks and ARM's Lock-In Netbook Opportunity … http://bit.ly/9Z3GME
Social Netbooks and ARM's Lock-In Netbook Opportunity … http://bit.ly/boeA9u
hey chippy,
i’m desperately waiting for the recording of the meetmobility podcast.
when are you going to upload it? :)
I have a video that i’ll edit and upload tomorrow. The audio recording failed :-(
nobody talks about linux mid oriented distros like ubuntu mobile?
though i’m using actual ubuntu karmic, in the xubuntu flavor, on my umpc :)
since i’ ve installed xubuntu, i find my umpc flying, with less battery consumption, fast boot, ultra fast suspend/resume with wifi, bluetooth and touchscreen warmstart. i mean that xubuntu really enjoy me, and it’s certainly enough on a umpc (or a mid) if you only browse the web and the social networks.
besides my umpc is a pure Intel/x86 though powered with xubuntu :)
i believe an arm version with xubuntu would do the same (good) job ;)
RT @umpcportal: Social Netbooks and ARM's Lock-In Netbook Opportunity. http://bit.ly/bk2bfQ
RT @chippy: RT @umpcportal: Social Netbooks and ARM's Lock-In Netbook Opportunity. http://bit.ly/bk2bfQ
Social Netbooks and ARM’s Lock-In Netbook Opportunity by the famous @Chippy. http://bit.ly/bJLg2g
RT @chippy & @umpcportal: Social Netbooks and #ARM Lock-In #Netbook Opportunity http://bit.ly/bk2bfQ
RT @chippy: RT @umpcportal: Social Netbooks and ARM's Lock-In Netbook Opportunity. http://bit.ly/bk2bfQ
Any rumors about Viliv refreshing their S-5/X70EX tablets in time for ceBit?
They are working 100% on S10, N5 and their Android projects AFAIK
bummer. I was looking for a X70EX with optical mouse and maybe (slightly) upgraded specs.
technically Chippy you are correct & absolutely every point you made is perfect. even the mainstream who dont know they want it yet will eventually wind up wanting it.
BUT i think their is 1 critical flaw in your thinking. every advantage you mentioned about smartbooks is ALREADY available to the mainstream, but in their smartphones. besides the increase in screen size their is almost no reason for the mainstream to go with a smartbook. if they are going to upsize to a device that cant fit in a pocket than more than likely they will want a vastly more functional Windows based netbook. and you know what, even while that Windows netbook is in “sleep” they will still get all of their various “active alerts” through their smartphone. so that fact alone pretty much nullifies the advantage of smartbooks over netbooks, since people will always have a phone on them anyways.
personally, i think smartpads have a better chance than smartbooks because they offer a more dynamic experience.
RT @ARMCommunity: #ARM Blog – Will Tablets push Netbooks closer to the grave? http://bit.ly/cooN98 Me: Similar to my http://bit.ly/aGEeDP
LKS: RT @chippy: #ARM Blog – Will Tablets push Netbooks closer to the grave? http://bit.ly/cooN98 Me: Similar to my http://bit.ly/aGEeDP
This smartbook looks great, everything is in place. Except for Google Marketplace. Without this, this is a waste. No use in buying this smartbook without the major smart feature, which is the app store.
As someone who has never owned a smartphone a smartbook is much more attractive to me. I’m really holding out for a convertible smartbook. With a larger screen and with a keyboard I can get most of a similar experience to what I am used to on a regular laptop with all the benefits Chippy mentioned.
I really hope Realty is right because I would really like to see an Android smartbook as a stand alone device.
What we need is a major manufacturer to build an Android Smartbook to get the ball rolling because they are the only one’s with the chance of getting the Google Marketplace. I can’t see google giving the marketplace to a tiny Chinese company no one has ever heard of before, but I can see an Asus, or Dell, or HP device getting the Google branding and the marketplace.
To me the appeal of a smartbook over a smartphone or a tablet is that I could possibly be productive on it. If it has a nice keyboard you could write a novel on it. Which is why I like the convertible form factor, you can be productive and then fold the screen down and get that intimate browsing or whatever it is touch gives you. With ARM instead of x86 you can make the devices even thinner than Atom convertibles to make the tablet mode even better and more like a device that is only a tablet.
I think an android smartbook has huge potential and I can’t wait for them to become a reality.
@lichmd Social Netbook = 'Smart' Book but i'm not allowed to say that word from Germany! http://bit.ly/d7UjJi