‘Netbook’ Searches are Topping Out. What Happens Next?

Back in August 2009 I took a look at some of the keywords in mobile computing. My top tips at that time were Moblin and Maemo. Obviously I was wrong on that one as both of those two keywords disappeared! My heart was in the right place though and those two keywords merged into another one, MeeGo, that I will also tip as an important one for the next 3-year timeframe.

MID continues to be a difficult term to search for. EeePC and PocketPC continue to decline. iPhone continues to dwarf everything else. Nothing much changed there but the updates I wanted to give you today are based around the ‘netbook’ and ‘android’ keywords. When we last looked at the graph, Android was just overtaking Netbook. Both keywords were on the rise.

6 months later and things are looking quite different…

I’ve removed the search term ‘windows mobile’ and you can clearly see that search volume for netbooks has dropped-off dramatically while Android continues to rise.

Christmas will have caused the peak you see in the netbook graph but look how it was dropping before that and look to where the level has dropped since Christmas. If the graph falls further we could be leaving the peak of the mass-market stage for netbooks and from that point on it becomes a scramble to sell to the remaining adopters. Prices will drop, marketing will get heavy-handed (the 1.8Ghz and DDR3-capable Atom CPU’s appear to be an effort to assist marketing teams in that effort) and there’s a chance that quality will drop as cheaper builds flood the market. There’s also a chance that someone steps in to re-energise the market and that some effort goes into tailoring the netbook experience for different types of user. If the Nvidia ION 2 platform and rumors of dual-core Atom processors for netbooks is anything to go by then there’s every chance that the processor, screen, GPU, memory and feature restrictions will all be dropped. In that case we can hope for some nice high-end netbooks, mobile-focused netbooks, gaming, video other focus areas. To be honest, neither of these moves will really help. One is just an indication that netbooks really are entering the ‘laggard’ segment; the other an indication that netbooks are merging into laptops. It’s highly possible that both of these moves will happen at the same time.

Watch that graph. Where are we moving to next? Tomorrow I’ll be posting an article that looks closely at the possible death of the desktop OS for mobile consumers and professionals which is another reason that the netbook keyword could be on the way out.