Other stats from the German market (Note, this screen size analysis is not just for netbooks. It includes tablets and specialist notebooks.)
- 73% of the devices are running on Intel Atom. That’s down from 78% in March.
- Only 3% of the devices are offered with Linux. (Down from 5%)
- There are no Android-based devices in the selection
- There’s a 4:3 ratio of Glossy to Matt screens. (More matt screens than in March)
- Under 10% of the devices weigh 1KG or less and less than half of those are true netbooks. Many are old models. The trend is for heavier netbooks.
- Only 4% include the ION option. (up from 3%) but there are still no Pinetrail /ION devices in the German market.
- The cheapest device (based on lowest price offered) is now the Olidata Classmate (1st edition Celeron version at 149 Euro, obviously a stock clear-out) and the cheapest Atom-based netbook has risen from 180 Euros to 220 Euros.
- There 135 devices under 300 Euro.
- There are 68 devices with touchscreens.
- There are 7 ARM CPUs in the selection (6 are Apple SKUs)
Previous netbook market analysis here. Data from Geizhals.at
Summary. Number of new devices is slowing down. Weight and screen size are increasing. Number of tablets has increased.
Fight for the sofa
I’ve stated before that I think that up to 10% of the netbook market in the US and EU will be affected by the iPad. If we take the tablet market as a whole and look to a time in 2011 when there are iPad competitors on the market too, we can probably expect even more of the netbook market to be taken by tablets, pads and ‘smart’ devices. Why? (U.S. and Western EU market only)
- Many netbooks are bought as second or gift purchases where the true requirement is questionable. (No stats, proof)
- Many are impulse purchases based on hype and a cute form factor (I have no proof just a gut feeling)
- Windows is looking boring compared to the touch and app-enabled operating systems from the mobile world. (my opinion)
- iPad momentum appears to be increasing.
- Android may release specifically for tablet and other ‘smart’ devices.
There’s also an influx of dedicated devices for e-reading and an overlap from the smartphone market starting to happen. Smartphones reach 4.3 inch with one or two devices going to 5 or even 7 inch (Dell Streak and Huawei S7.) We will reach a point where the smartphone only needs a screen and PC to become a productive computing device.
Summary
The current netbook market is flat but high. It looks like the term ‘netbook’ may be fading from interest by media and end users. There’s no indication that ARM are making any impact in any of the computing categories above smartphones yet. Windows remains dominants as a low-cost computing operating system. A small risk to netbook sales in USA and Europe may be coming from the tablet and ‘smart’ device trend.
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New article: Netbook Freeze Is More Than Just a Summer Break. http://bit.ly/ccmvGi
Netbook Freeze Is More Than Just a Summer Break.: As I was counting the netbook articles on Liliputing this mornin… http://bit.ly/9ha1zK
one sure way proven that you have a great eye-sight, you want a smaller LCD screen, but they keep rolling out the big ones.
i just goddamn want a decent super high resolution 7in LCD, not even LED or AMOLED.
where you can just stretch it to run at 1300×760 or so..
such a primitive age, such a device is super rare if yet existed at all.
@ brandontx1: take a look in sony vaio p. best device i own myself next to my viliv x70 and some others… sony shows that 1600x768px are possible. and trust me no viliv or other yet available device has such a nice display… my thoughts are that all the devices with 600px height are not for business use. you have to scroll all the time in websites or in outlook up and down.
thx for headsup info bud, i’ve pretty much tried and pried them all out there heh heh.
the 8inch vao, love love the layout design and stuff, just the battery run-time, downner. tried both viliv 5 and 7 as well, gotten quite hot after awhile..
it’s all fine though, i’m all good with a 10in HP atm lol.
next big hope, samsung galaxy tab..
heads up guys, thx
What do you mean by traditional netbook market? Is 10″ too big for that? Cause I think the 10″ are here to stay for awhile and new advancements will bring more interest back to the market. The dual core atoms in netbooks will help and maybe stuff like meego or pixelqi and ssds.
If we look back to the peak of the netbook excitement it wasn’t just about 10″ screens. 8.9 and even 7″ were used for a lot of products and I loved some of those for ultra mobile computing.
10″ Is likely to stay and remain the dominant screen size for a while though. I don’t expect it go away but when I see the dual-core, HDV, 3D GPUs I long for a time when it was a simple set-up focusing on small, light and cheap.
Small, light, and cheap hasn’t stopped being part of the netbook focus. Problem is keeping them Small, light, and cheap has always been a balancing act. Especially with the extremely small profit margin…
The market for them was just basically easy because there wasn’t really any competition and they could afford to not push for advancement like every other part of the computer market and keep with the minimal specs that worked for them. Consequently, letting them lower the cost of production and offer pretty much the same product for ever decreasing price, with the only real improvement over the last 2 years being mainly just improved energy efficiency for better battery run times.
But now netbooks are seeing competitive products that are beginning to have features that overlap into what previously only netbooks could offer.
So now that balancing act is becoming a tight rope as netbooks now have to start working like the rest of the computer market and start offering better features but still keep between the ARM devices and CULV sides of the market.
I thus don’t see this as a sign that netbooks will start going away but rather that they will have to evolve and change just like every other part of the computer market has done…
Well the truth is that you only need to replace computers when they stop doing what you need them to do. The whole reason that people bought all of these netbooks is that they only needed them to surf the net and make word files. Seeing as these computers are only going to break down every couple years and the chances that people will suddenly need to do more with their computers is slim. It is highly probable that the market will reach the saturation point relativity quickly.
Chippy, do you have the similar numbers for the American or UK market?
Sorry. I have only researched German market.
dont worry, samething will happen to the smartphone & tablet markets as Android is already flooding with 4.3″ devices & saturation is causing interest lessen (look at website stats).
the netbook craze couldnt last forever, they are now a commodity item like traditional laptops have been for years. whens the last time you saw the mainstream give a shit about laptops?
There is a whole lot of “what IFs” here. The only thing that seem related to Netbook marketshare being reduced is this: “73% of the devices are running on Intel Atom. That’s down from 78% in March.”
Which might just mean CULV took some marketshare. The site looks are number of designs available. Reduction in Netbook designs are merely because there’s nothing much special manufacturers can do with limited differences for Netbook Atoms.
Let’s see it again when the dual core Pine Trail devices are out. When devices are sold in high enough quantities, you can’t just pin it to “impulse buying” and “hype/cute” factor.
All this means more choices, which are good for us.
Yes. A lot of ‘what if’ scenarios form. The Q3/Q4 market will get under way in a few weeks and we’ll be able to see the numbers of products and media reaction. Will they call them netbooks?
At the end of the day, it looks like the only thing that will happen is that the word ‘netbook’ becomes unfasionable as it remains associated with early netbook market. Liliputing got the name right ;-)
Hey Chippy, another interesting and thought provoking study!
I, also, get the impression that the iPad has changed the focus away from netbooks – at least in the 10″ screen size. It seems everybody and his brother has a 10″ tablet in the works and most are not going to be running windows. I for one am eagerly waiting for the ADAM with its Tegra2 and Pixel Qi screen – at last a screen one can bring and use outside! I expect this fall and winter will be very interesting.
The net effect might very well be the end of the 10″ netbook in favour of bigger screens (and keyboards). It will be interesting to see how popular dual-core ATOM based netbooks/notebooks will be (I expect they will be, at the expense of the traditional laptop).
1.) A general sentiment towards Netbooks has built up among consumers, that ANY Atom CPU will not be enough to fulfil the usual consumers’ requirements.
2.) People are more willing to spend the difference, between a Netbook and a Sub-Notebook, than the previous 2 years.
3.) There are now i3, i5, even i7 laptops/notebooks that are sized, weighted, and with battery-life similar to netbooks.
As the economic condition would likely continue to improve, and power/size advancements in full-fledged CPUs, I think Atom’s time as a CPU inside non-pocketable/non-embedded devices is almost up. And since the public associate the term “Netbook” too much with “Atom CPUs”, rather than the 10″-under laptop form factor, the keyword “Netbook” will indeed die along with “Atom”.
But regardless of whether the term “netbook” survives, I think there will be a steady stream of “10-inch or under” laptops/notebooks from now on, perhaps with full-fledged CPUs and a notebook-like price tag.
And for that, I’m very, very grateful that Atom happened. Atom netbooks made available to us full PCs that we can comfortably carry all day, and showed us that it can be done with today’s technology.
Its an interesting thought that Atom could suffer with the decline of the netbook keyword. I hadn’t thought of that angle although I personally don’t associate Atom with lack of ability. I associate it with good battery life and portability.
to quote davidC1, there are a lot of “what ifs” here so nothing is absolutely certain. Then again, if there were not any what ifs life would be quite dull and uninteresting.
Well, don’t know if there are others like me, but here’s my thought on the netbook.
I first had a EeePC 701. It was great back then.Very small, and light, and @ 180 euros it was cheap!
And it was faster(the Celeron@900!!) then my previous notebook, a 14″ Dell Pentium@1MHz
But, the screen size and resolution was just not comfortable for me.
If I wanted to read something, i had to lean towards the screen while sitting at the desk with my hands comfortably placed for typing.
Battery life was also not great, at 2,5 max 3h
Soo, I then wanted a 901 series with an Atom, and a spare battery.
Just at that time 901 was starting to run out of stock everywhere,
and I then in the end decided to cash out a lot more money for a netbook,
which will do all I want from it, since it is my only computer.
I bought a Samsung NC10 that just came out.
It gave me a very comfortable screen size and resolution (although i sometimes wished for more then 600 vertical)
enough processing power (especially with Samsung’s overclocking at 1,8(?))
and enough battery life at about 5,5-6 hours on average use with USB 3G dongle,
and almost 9 if it just played mp3 non stop with power savings.
I now own a Toshiba NB200 and just because I gave the Samsung to my sister.
Toshiba has just a bit of extra runtime, and a brighter glossy screen,
but the Samsung is way more higher quality (plastics,paint,keyboard and touchpad)
But still, it’s enough for me, and I wont buy anything else till this netbook is still working.
The size is just right,and the weight at 1,3kg might not be to good, it’s still acceptable because of the large 6 cell battery and it’s runtime.
New Atoms now last even longer (11h for the Asus?) but it’s not enough a reason for me to buy a new one, if this one is still working.
I take it everywhere with me in a small backpack, or just in my hand.Works for me.
What netbooks might use is some more processing power(video too) while keeping agood run times.
What I DON’T want is more processing power, but with drastically decreased run time,
and a huge 12″ format that ION Asus is offering.
10″ is just a perfect compromise for me,and I’m sure for most users out there.
It does everything i need,and I can take it everywhere with me.
What could make me spend some money now, is an 5″ ultraportable, with all day long battery life,
at a reasonable price.
I don’t say it must run Windows, but it has to work as a netbook, i won’t accept anything less (inline flash,firefox,skype video calls)
Viliv N5 is a nice candidate, but still a bit to much at $800 for something I’m not sure will work for me (5″ screen and cramped keyboard)
But it’s a true ultraportable allright ! :)
What I’m disappointed with the N5 is a lack of ANY video output.
At least a VGA out so I can hook it up to a decent screen at home for crying out loud!
Pay more for a video out ?? No way! It’s very expensive as it is.
As someone mentioned, Sony Vaio P is a great not so little netbook(with the recent “facelift” and usable 3G for EU),
but battery life just doesn’t cut it.The EeePC 701 lasted longer then that!
But otherwise it’s a nice productivity netbook with a large keyboard,
and a very wide screen (allowing side by side applications)
looks great and is nicely built, but without a long battery life, it’s just a gadget to show off in a local café while sipping your espresso.
But if the price was just lower, maybe some one could live with a short battery life.
But as it is, I’ll rather buy Viliv N5 then Sony Vaio P.
Just my thoughts .. and probably I’m not alone in “why buy new when this one is still working?” (and the new ones are not offering much more then more run time)
It looks to me like the market will split to 5″ ultraportables (whatever platform they are) and usual 10″ netbook format(probably not offering anything more then now, for the same price)
Cheers!