It seems now that the Microsoft Origami team were almost right with their original consumer-focused hardware specifications. They got the processing power, screen size, weight and pricing target right. They just forgot to add the keyboard. But then that would have been a rather boring conclusion to a two-year project wouldn’t it? Actually, what they really got wrong was the usage model and the size of the device. They were 4 years too early and tried to realise their, still valid, ideas within the confines of 2005/2006 technology and it wasn’t the way people wanted it. It had a chance to evolve though and I think the slate concept would have gone further if the Eee PC hadn’t come along. I thought the prices would stay higher for longer. I was of the opinion that Origami-style devices would work at a consumer level (although personally, I always wanted a Carrypad) and I thought we’d see ultra mobility scenarios and designs developing in the high-margin business sector before the prices dropped to consumer levels. I even said that lowering prices was the least-favorable option for UMPC’s but no, any hope of spending R&D money on original, exciting and personal designs and organic growth in this area of mobile desktop PC’s has been completely smothered. Its all about low-cost mini-notebooks as presents for the kids now. One for the holiday-home and another for the kitchen. PC’s in every room! Of course, the business market still exists and devices like the HTC Shift will still have a space and even the sprit of Origami will live on. It’s also still possible that we will see consumer-focused mobile desktop PCs and slates through manufacturers innovations and leverage through the buzz created by the Eee PC but I think it’s more likely that Origami ‘concepts’ will rise in another part of the market now. Possibly without Microsoft which would be a shame considering they were the first people to actually do a deep study into this space. [Read more after the jump]
The 7″ ultra mobile PC sector will sell millions in 2008. I’m already losing track of the number of VIA Nanobook variants there are and everywhere I look there is news about the Eee PC in new forms. We’re hearing about 9″ touchscreen versions and even versions based on Silverthorne [translate] or Diamondville. We’ve already heard about MSI wanting to get into the Ultra Mobile Notebook PC game and now there’s news about Acer and Gigabyte too with HP and Dell also in the picture. Then there’s the Intel classmate PC which I haven’t written much about but I’m sure that will be on the shelves too. This is in addition to the existing Kohjinsha, Vye, ACI, HCL, Cathena and other brands that are built on Inventec original designs. Inventec, incidentally, have just bought out the main reseller/distributor KJS, aka Kohjinsha. They obviously want to get closer to the potential profits! ASUS have already sold 350,000 Eee PCs and are expecting to sell another million in Q1 2008. That sounds like it doesn’t leave much potential for other players but look at the global notebook market. The total global notebook market is worth something like 100 million units so there’s a fair bit of room for these subnotebooks. It doesn’t seem wrong now to estimate that 5-10% of the notebook market in 2008 and 2009 will comprise 7-10″ laptops. It looks like that market will reach that 8 million figure three years earlier than expected? Maybe VIA and Intel were right after-all with their 10%, 22 million prediction. Personally, I didn’t think it would move this fast because I never thought we’d see a ultra mobile PC product selling at $299 but as I said, we’ve now got people buying UMPCs as presents and second PCs and I’m sure we’ll see the final piece of the puzzle (mobile Internet) added to these low-end devices before the end of 2008. At the same time, we’ll see mobile Internet devices (effectively a more refined Origami concept) emerging. The landscape can change so amazingly quickly.
So will the same thing happen in the low-end ultra mobile PC sector with MIDs and other 4-5″ devices? Will Intel focus on processing power and WiMax only to be trumped, just as the Origami project was, by a low-cost, multi-million selling ‘free’ poduct based on ARM and Google Android that will not-only stifle Intel’s progress but, at the same time, smother the smartphone’s slow advance into the consumer mobile Internet space? Its possible. One thing is for sure though, the mini-laptop will progress and the Origami concepts and dreams will be realised. Millions of mini-laptops. Millions of MIDs. They have always been, and always will be, UMPCs to me.
