We’ve asked Intel about this before and they were rather coy about giving us an answer. If Ultrabooks take-over where tablets can’t reach and if Ultrabooks, or at least laptops running the Core CPU contain the power to do everything the average user wants, why would customers bother upgrading the old box in the corner?
“It’s possible” was the only answer we got at IDF last month but PCR-Online got a more detailed answer.
“We see desktops becoming more of a niche market, with the devices getting bigger, more powerful and more expensive. “
Others have been discussing the threat to tablets and I agree, there is some risk there but as prices drop, tablets will move into a ‘personal gift’ category. The smartphone and the laptop will remain the must-have choices for most people in the developed world and it’s the desktop that is most at risk.
The question does remain though – how much of that laptop market will be taken by Ultrabooks. Intel have said 40% by end of 2012. Acer say 20% by end of 2012.
Source: pcr-online
Image credit: Ritchies Room
I have to say, if Intel really believes this, they’re sorely at odds with reality. Though laptop efficiency availability is expanding quickly, desktops will forever have a decided edge on affordability, cooling, customizability and maintenance that will always maintain their usefulness.
Additionally, we are not very far from a future where streaming can efficiently replace most of what our massive media centers and expensive cable subscriptions do now. And there is notably little difference between modern gaming systems and desktops anyway. There is huge room for innovation to target these very lucrative markets through new desktops and attendant software. Intel seems to think that if Apple hasn’t done something first it isn’t worth doing… they’re wrong.
My feeling is that the average user will, over time, be more interested in the laptop form factor than the desktop and that the price differential will become smaller, especially as people may already have storage, screen, keyboard and mouse solutions that they can add to a capable laptop. I also think that we’re quite some way from streaming ( I assume you mean streaming from internet) personal content from the internet. The time-consuming upload process and privacy may limit this to advanced users.