We’ve had ARM-based mini-notebooks and tablets for years and in recent months we’ve even had the chance to test out some new, high-powered arrivals. The Netwalker, Wirelession 1060, TouchBook and many more. The potential has always been there to make a killer product but no-one has executed correctly yet. The Mobinnova Beam gets close but there’s a lot missing from the OS on that one.

The Dell Mini 5 and Apple iPad might change that and in the world of 4-10 inch ultra-mobile devices are likely to be the biggest sellers this segment has seen for at least the last 5 years. They combine some unique features over X86 devices that I discuss below. These niche-market devices may not see multi-million sales but there are still big opportunities.

Up at the 10 inch  netbook segment though there’s a well-established market for low-cost, portable, low-end internet-focused mini laptops. Netbooks have 40 million or more sales to-date and over 100 million sales predicted for 2013. Prices are low, battery life high, performance acceptable and even style is playing a role. Netbooks are just cool and very easy to justify. This is where ARM partners have a superb opportunity…in the Social Netbook.

ARM-partners aren’t in the netbook game yet but they do have a big chance if they use some unique weapons that Intel will have to think carefully about in their next-gen netbook platform. The ‘Social Netbook’ is a huge opportunity for ARM partners.

For the first time this week I finally saw an ARM-based netbook that executes well on what I think are the important unique and ‘lock-in’ features and the device slots neatly into a category of ‘social’ netbooks. Jolicloud beware because the Compaq Airlife 100 is good.

The 4 ARM-Centric Features of a Social Netbook.

1 – Point of sale

First of all we have the point-of-sale element. Selling applications, books, videos, music and other online services adds value to the customer and  value to the sales-chain which, in turn, can bring the price of a product down. Android, iPhone OS and other ARM-centric operating systems have proven that the model works and is important for the future. Windows-based netbooks aren’t POS devices. Intel and Nokia are working on this via their Intel Atom Developer Program and app-store framework but it’s in it’s infancy and needs a lot of marketing, development and commitment from OEMs before it becomes interesting for developers and customers. Point-of-sale is a lock-in feature.

2 – Location Based Services and Social Networking

LBS is becoming very big business and customers are starting to catch on to the idea of local search, local social networking and other location-based services. There ARE solutions for Windows-based netbooks but they are few and far between. Take Google Buzz for instance. The only way you can use the location aspect of this service is to use it on an ARM-based smartphone. Windows just doesn’t lend itself to these services and despite efforts to include ‘sensor’ support in Windows 7, developers are just not developing with this in mind. All the action for LBS is exclusively on ARM-based platforms using operating systems built with this in mind. Intel and Nokia do have a solution in MeeGo but like the Intel Atom Developer Program, it’s a long way away from developers minds right now. LBS is a lock-in feature.

As for social networking, although the majority of it still happens on the desktop, the growth in mobile social networking is phenomenal and combined with LBS is something that an Intel/Windows netbook just can not do right now.

3 – Dynamic User Interfaces.

What’s more interesting? A static workbench or a tailored ‘active’ screen with dynamic wallpaper, active widgets, finger-attractions, location awareness and a neat integration and interleaving of notifications from device and external services? Despite Windows 7 being capable of all these things, it’s not delivering a dynamic, exciting, social-centric experience. How many usable finger-centric overlay packages did you see for Windows 7?  What platform are developers looking at when they want to make a dynamic, mobile friendly UI?  The answer is simple. Most of the work is going into ARM-focused operating systems right now and you only have to look to peoples reaction to ‘Sense’, the UI layer from HTC to see what a difference it makes. Funnily enough, Windows Phone 7 Series won’t be offering tailored overlay layers either so in terms of dynamic, evolving mobile user interfaces, Android is in the best position possible. Again, MeeGo is tackling that issue but again, it’s a long way away from developers minds right now. Dynamic user interfaces are a lock-in feature.

4 – Always on.

I’ve left the best until last. Always-on is a killer lock-in feature and the primary trojan horse for ARM-based products. Always-on is not about in-use battery life, it’s about staying connected and active when you don’t use the device. It’s the smartphone usage model and it’s the reason that many of us, despite having laptops with us, will choose to browse the web or do an email on a smartphone rather than on a mobile computer. We’re simply lazy.

I first experienced this always-on computing model with a productive device back in 2008 with the WiBrain i1 which was able to achieve a nearly all-day connected usage scenario but it got hot, was a little temperamental and was hardly the most attractive design. Since then we’ve started to see netbooks achieving a regular 8-hour connected battery life and we’re moving to the point where that is going up to 10 hours with designs based around Pinetrail and Menlow but they are all 1.2KG or more, all have huge 6-cell (expensive) batteries and all use an operating system and platform that aren’t designed for the out-of-use scenario. With the current mobile operating systems you get always-on in a much more efficient manner (expect connected active-standby times in days on an ARM netbook) and the OS is designed for that usage model too. From core OS functions to notifiers and the ability to light lamps and buzz buzzers when necessary even based on location. Users understand these OS’ as ‘always-active’ whereas with Windows 7, users are associating a desktop usage model and power-down after use.

Always-on usage is one of the best advantages ARM-partners have in this space and the primary lock-in feature for ARM-based netbooks.

And…

Also worth thinking about are casual gaming, in-use battery life advantages, weight, design flexibility (smaller, fanless designs) carrier channels and subsidization models.

It always makes me laugh when I hear about $99 smartbooks competing with netbooks because the only real difference in cost is a few dollars in silicon, plastic and battery.

The other thing that makes me laugh is how people get hung up on parts cost and potential profit while forgetting the market reasearch, r&d, marketing, distribution, training, support, legal, insurance, shipping, tax and, shock!, profits associated with a device.

Have a look at this isuppli breakdown and you’ll see just how much a high-end smart device costs to make . A high end netbook selling 1m+ is coming in at about$150 due to the cheaper screens and lack of gps, accelerometer, hard drive and other components. The r&d and market research figures are also close to zero in the netbook market so you can see that large format smart devices have a long way to go before they become sub $200 desirable items.

Another good checkpoint is the Archos 5 Android Tablet which, with a similar integrated cpu and gpu, smaller battery, 8GB storage, 256MB RAM, less plastic, open source OS and a 5″ resistive touchscreen is being sold for $240.

Source : iSuppli.

iSuppli breaks down iPad cost, guess how much 3G costs | GottaBeMobile.com.

ARM can walk away from CES this year knowing that they and their partners did an excellent job of capturing a large amount of positive press and someone that probably went home very happy indeed was Bob Morris, Director of Mobile Computing at ARM.

I had the pleasure of spending about an hour with Bob where he demonstrated the Mobinnova Beam, highlighted an excelent Morgan Stanley mobile internet report and chit-chatted about some of the announcements, successes and challenges that remain for ARM and it’s partners.

He also took 10 minutes to record an audio interview with me where he talks about the ‘transition’ to mobile internet, the ebook reader explosion and the ‘year of tablets.’ I ask him how significant the ‘smart’ device category is to ARM, about the customers confidence in the software layer, the ARM advantage and finally, ‘what’s coming next.’

Click the embedded player to listen inline or the text link to download the interview.

Bob Morris interview

Related: ARM Platform primer for MIDs in 2010

Over the last 3+ years I’ve spent a rather embarrassing amount of time analysing battery drain on mobile computing devices. It’s become a specialty of mine to look at a device, look at the battery size and then estimate real-world battery life figures for certain usage scenarios although in the netbook world it really boils down to a simple equation take 30% off what you see on the specifications.

In the world of smart devices (computing and communication devices based around the ARM architecture) the equation is slightly different and as we move to ARM based tablets, pads and MIDs the equation gets even more wobbly because these devices can idle down to near-zero drain rates. Take the 300+hrs standby figures you see on some phones for example. With a 5W battery, that’s a drain of about 16mw, which is 100x less power than even the most efficient of PC-based mobile devices in idle mode.  The problem is, however…

There’s no such thing as idle.

The days of ‘standby’ are long gone as even the most basic of phones are able to play music, access 3G networks, present information on backlit colour screens and run simple background tasks like alarm and event monitoring, location services, email polling and more. Move to a smartphone scenario and that 16mw idle figure is irrelevant. When I tested my N82 a few years ago I was shocked to find out that it could suck 9 batteries dry in a long day of heavy use.

I re-charged the device fully and did a static test using the same apps. Music playing, live GPS tracking (I use Nokia Sports Tracker) and IM via Gizmo. I left the device alone and didn’t use it. After 110 minutes it switched off indicating a 2.1W average drain from the 3.7wh battery. [Source]

Today I installed an interesting app on my N82 and confirmed those findings of nearly two years ago. Using the awesome (for geeks like me) ‘Energy Profiler’ for Symbian Series 60 I lay in bed for about an hour testing out various scenarios. Sure enough, the phone idled down to about 200mw and by simply streaming some music over 3G the figure shot up to 1W. Turn on GPS via the map application and crank up the volume and the device was using over 1.5W. Just cranking up the audio volume added 20-30% power load on the device!

The CPU is out of the equation

Last week at CES Nvidia announced Tegra 2. It’s one of the most powerful ARM-based processing platforms on the planet. Think 2-4 times more CPU processing power than even the fastest smartphone out there right now. It’s amazing and exciting, especially when you known that the CPU cores only take around 400-600mw under full load. Once again, this platform can idle down to an almost frozen state. The platform is slightly too big and power-hungry for small smartphones at the moment but expect to see this in high-end media and internet phones and upcoming tablets and MIDs. The 4-10 inch screen range.

When you get to screen sizes of 4 inch and above, something happens that levels the playing field for Intel somewhat. Their CPU platforms (*1) don’t idle down very well but in a typical ‘internet-connected’ scenario on one of these ‘smart’ devices, that becomes almost insignificant as the screen backlight adds such a huge load to the platform that when combined with Wifi, 3G, BT, GPS and audio, the CPU is just 10% of the total load. Swapping Intel out for ARM would save you just 5-10% battery life in an ‘active’ scenario.

Active standby

I’m a big fan of low-power computing and I understand that that most people won’t be using a device all the time so there’s a distinct advantage to use and ARM platform over a current Intel platform (*1) but usage models are changing and it’s now common to find people picking up a phone to use it once every few minutes and when they’re not using it, the GPS, Wifi, 3G and audio is still running. Simply being ‘connected’, polling the internet is going to mean that your device is going to be using 500mw of power on average. Standby is now an ‘active’ or ‘on-net’ experience.

Extreme Battery life marketing

All this confusion and range of figures is great for marketing teams. The ‘all-day’ connected’ expression will be used a lot along with a lot of talk about standby battery life of ‘days.’ Forget it! The average 4-10 inch tablet device will be using an average 1W to 2W per hour. Leave the screen backlight on along with a few flash and ajax-filled browser tabs running with a 10 inch slate and you’re in the 4W range. The 10W battery that would fit comfortably in such a device suddenly becomes a 2.5hr battery in that scenario.

Warning

You will hear a lot of battery life BS over the next year. Silicon manufacturers are in a truly critical fight to win in the new ‘smart’ devices market and as a result, they will use every weapon. BE AWARE that as devices get more fun, connected and dynamic, you will use them more and battery life will drop like a fly. IGNORE manufacturers battery life claims and wait for independent reviews. That’s what we’re here for!

Related articles:

How long does your smartphone last in ‘MID’ mode?

How big is an ‘all-day’ Mobile Internet smartphone?

(*1) The upcoming Moorestown platform brings a whole new power control architecture to the table in late 2010. More analysis on Moorestown here.

It’s not confirmed right now but the Mobinnova Beam could be the first non-voice Android device to get the full Google seal of approval and if it does, it could become quite the mobile all-rounder.This is the lightest 8.9 inch laptop-style device we have in the product database!

The Beam is coming to AT&T with HSPA and Android with a 3D UI and a super light weight of around 820gm. That’s lighter than any other netbook out there thanks to the small, 24Wh battery and fanless processing platform based on Nvidia Tegra 2.

Sizing-wise, the Beam is slightly deeper than the  EeePC 901 but significantly thinner. In terms of battery life, we’re looking at an on-net, in-use life of 8-10 hours (estimated) which means you really could leave this device on, and connected, all-day.

Pricing and availability is unknown right now but we’re watching this one very carefully. If it gets Google approval, it could signify the start of Android-based productivity and that’s why we’re reporting it here on UMPCPortal. This has pro-mobility potential.

Full specs, article links, videos in the Beam product page.

Sascha and Nicole from netbooknews.com kindly invited me to join them for a meeting with Freescale this morning. I have a video that i’ll process later but in the meantime, here are some pics. Note that this is a reference design, not the final sexy variant that you might find in the shops.

More information about the reference design can be found in a article we posted a few days ago.

Full gallery here.

The starting point for a mobile internet device design is to look at the processing platforms available in the market. I’ve spent the last few days researching and reviewing the ARM-based CPUs and platforms and put together a full report that you can find over at UMPCPortal.

If you’re tracking news about MID and ‘smart devices’ from CES next week, keep this as a reference.

ARM Products and Platforms Primer and Resource List for Mobile Internet Devices in 2010. | UMPCPortal – Ultra Mobile Personal Computing.

In a significant architechtural move away from X86, the 2011 generation of the XO (One Laptop Per Child Project) will move from a VIA C7 CPU to a Marvell design based on ARM cores.

In an updated article at Engadget, the word direct from OLPC is that it will ‘enable two times the speed at a quarter of the power usage. That version will sell for somewhere in the $175 range.’

Sounds like a ARM Cortex A9 MPCore to me.

If the tech details sound boring though, check out a concept they’re touting for XO-3!

More images and reading at Engadget:

OLPC shows off absurdly thin XO-3 concept tablet for 2012 (update: XO-1.5 and XO-1.75 coming first) — Engadget.